Far Right Presidential Candidate Wins in Argentina

[Foxi4]

Yeah since we don't have free access to get USD there's a parallel (illegal) market. That parallel price was frozen for the first few months (started going up recently), that's why it looked like the peso was going strong.
See how "Parallel peso" is the one going positive but the official one is in the negative. It's so stupid I can't believe we're even discussing this.
View attachment 439515
https://markets.businessinsider.com...ssion-inflation-milei-foreign-currency-2024-4

Nobody is claiming otherwise because nobody is exchanging the peso on the official exchange unless they have to. FX comparisons are always drawn against the black market peso because that’s the more realistic representation of its value. The entire point of this exercise is to narrow the gap between the parallel and the official FX rate to establish an *actual* currency. The situation in Argentina is *not* normal and needs to be rectified. If the official exchange rate is dropping and the parallel exchange rate is rising then they’re on the path to meet in the middle, which is the objective. You present your graph as if it was an indictment of Milei when in reality it’s a testament to his policy doing exactly what it’s supposed to do.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

If the official exchange rate is dropping and the parallel exchange rate is rising then they’re on the path to meet in the middle, which is the objective.

So optimistic!

 

[Nightwish]

Project "get the weak to die of hunger while the rest removes their savings from the economy" continues with amazing success. Might even be thunderous and roaring success once the police and army realize they're not in the in group.
It's brave, others have long passed caved to claiming it's not real capitalism, but that is merely lack of faith. Trust the vibes!

 

[Foxi4]

So optimistic!

I don’t know why you’re calling it “optimistic” when what’s happening right now is the stated goal of the policy. It’s playing out as predicted.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

I don’t know why you’re calling it “optimistic” when what’s happening right now is the stated goal of the policy. It’s playing out as predicted.

I don't think so. It's getting even worse than before, and it doesn't actually seem like this is meant to act like a flu.

 

[Foxi4]

I don't think so. It's getting even worse than before, and it doesn't actually seem like this is meant to act like a flu.

There’s an enormous gap between the Peso on the international FX and the actual value of the Peso as it relates to USD. It’s *not supposed to be that wide*. Devaluing one and strengthening the other until the two values meet, or rather, get significantly closer to each other is the desirable outcome. I don’t know how to explain it any better, the FX rate should reflect the value of the currency. If anything, a lower value on the official exchange stimulates foreign investment because they can get more Peso for their dollar. Heads *bigger and smarter than yours*, actual economists, are congratulating the new government on their efforts to close the gap. I’m sorry, but I have more confidence in Bloomberg’s analysis than I do in a “guy on the Internet” hot take.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

I don’t know how to explain it any better, the FX rate should reflect the value of the currency.

You've explained it just fine, no one is arguing that, what I'm arguing is the end result and your unconditional belief that somehow the plan is working. I have no interest in hot takes.

 

[jomaper]

Nobody is claiming otherwise because nobody is exchanging the peso on the official exchange unless they have to. FX comparisons are always drawn against the black market peso because that’s the more realistic representation of its value. The entire point of this exercise is to narrow the gap between the parallel and the official FX rate to establish an *actual* currency. The situation in Argentina is *not* normal and needs to be rectified. If the official exchange rate is dropping and the parallel exchange rate is rising then they’re on the path to meet in the middle, which is the objective. You present your graph as if it was an indictment of Milei when in reality it’s a testament to his policy doing exactly what it’s supposed to do.

The official exchange is not dropping, what are you not understanding? They're both rising.

Post automatically merged: May 30, 2024

Project "get the weak to die of hunger while the rest removes their savings from the economy" continues with amazing success. Might even be thunderous and roaring success once the police and army realize they're not in the in group.
It's brave, others have long passed caved to claiming it's not real capitalism, but that is merely lack of faith. Trust the vibes!

Fun fact Misiones has been on fire these last couple of weeks because teachers, medics and police forces are camping asking for better salaries. The police are the only ones who got what they wanted (of course).

Post automatically merged: May 30, 2024

There’s an enormous gap between the Peso on the international FX and the actual value of the Peso as it relates to USD. It’s *not supposed to be that wide*. Devaluing one and strengthening the other until the two values meet, or rather, get significantly closer to each other is the desirable outcome. I don’t know how to explain it any better, the FX rate should reflect the value of the currency. If anything, a lower value on the official exchange stimulates foreign investment because they can get more Peso for their dollar. Heads *bigger and smarter than yours*, actual economists, are congratulating the new government on their efforts to close the gap. I’m sorry, but I have more confidence in Bloomberg’s analysis than I do in a “guy on the Internet” hot take.

Please give source for the bigger and smarter heads congratulating the government.

 

[KingVamp]

I highly doubt he is going to be the one to turn things around, let alone if it was the best way to do so, but I don't think it has been enough time to officially call this a train wreck.

 

[Foxi4]

The official exchange is not dropping, what are you not understanding? They're both rising.

Read your own graph.



You *just* posted it. Look at the bottom axis.

Please give source for the bigger and smarter heads congratulating the government.

Every single article regarding this matter posted in this thread so far. That, and the IMF, for months on end now.

 

[jomaper]

Read your own graph.

View attachment 439928

You *just* posted it. Look at the bottom axis.
Every single article regarding this matter posted in this thread so far. That, and the IMF, for months on end now.

That graph I sent was to disprove the dumb affirmation you made, it's also old news.

Post automatically merged: May 31, 2024

Read your own graph.

View attachment 439928

You *just* posted it. Look at the bottom axis.
Every single article regarding this matter posted in this thread so far. That, and the IMF, for months on end now.

Send a link. Prove it.

 

[Foxi4]

That graph I sent was to disprove the dumb affirmation you made, it's also old news.

Interesting strategy. Very confusing to people who know how to read a graph, but fascinating nonetheless. To reiterate, under Milei the gap shrank from 200% to 18%, and then grew to 44%. Good result.

Send a link. Prove it.

You are in front of a computer, presumably.

https://apnews.com/article/milei-ar...conomy-funds-b3b82978d3971ce6148f6f26f2d8e97b

Everything I said earlier in this thread is playing out exactly as anticipated - there are several years of hurt ahead of Argentinians because they dug themselves a pretty darn big hole, but the Peso is stabilising and the country posted its first *fiscal surplus* in 16 years. Macroeconomic stability is improving, confidence of the banking sector is increasing and the President of the IMF is singing Milei’s praises, approving further bailout funding. For the record, the IMF is Argentina’s chief creditor, so ideally you’d want to stay on their good side. It’s not going to be pretty anytime soon, but all the government has to do is keep doing what it’s doing for another 10 years and maybe, maybe, you’ll have a serviceable economy.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

the country posted its first *fiscal surplus* in 16 years

We've already been though that nonsense. The only reason the "surplus" is called as such is because basically all expenditure including necessary one has been turned off, kinda like saying "hey look, I have all this extra money this month!" Before factoring in debts and food expenditure

 

[Foxi4]

We've already been though that nonsense. The only reason the "surplus" is called as such is because basically all expenditure including necessary one has been turned off, kinda like saying "hey look, I have all this extra money this month!" Before factoring in debts and food expenditure

We have a very different definition of the word “necessary”. What’s necessary right now is balancing the budget. There’s no “nonsense” involved, they posted a fiscal surplus. For the record, since we’re in May, it’s now been 4 months of surplus, and the figure *does* include mandatory spending, most notably interest payments.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ameri...-budget-surplus-nearly-20-million-2024-05-16/

So no, it’s not like “getting a surplus by not paying your debts”. It’s paying off your debts first and then seeing how much left is there to spend.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

So no, it’s not like “getting a surplus by not paying your debts”. It’s paying off your debts first and then seeing how much left is there to spend.

No debt is really being paid if there is a surplus innit. Anyway, you trust the plan and we will see how it pans out. There is an insiders view of argentina which, frankly, seems more accurate than yours.

 

[jomaper]

Interesting strategy. Very confusing to people who know how to read a graph, but fascinating nonetheless. To reiterate, under Milei the gap shrank from 200% to 18%, and then grew to 44%. Good result.
You are in front of a computer, presumably.

https://apnews.com/article/milei-ar...conomy-funds-b3b82978d3971ce6148f6f26f2d8e97b

Everything I said earlier in this thread is playing out exactly as anticipated - there are several years of hurt ahead of Argentinians because they dug themselves a pretty darn big hole, but the Peso is stabilising and the country posted its first *fiscal surplus* in 16 years. Macroeconomic stability is improving, confidence of the banking sector is increasing and the President of the IMF is singing Milei’s praises, approving further bailout funding. For the record, the IMF is Argentina’s chief creditor, so ideally you’d want to stay on their good side. It’s not going to be pretty anytime soon, but all the government has to do is keep doing what it’s doing for another 10 years and maybe, maybe, you’ll have a serviceable economy.

So the IMF that fucked our country in the first place "praise" the dude who is gonna make everything in his power to pay them back (no matter the cost), shocking. Let's see what else did the IMF say:
1) "To overhaul the beleaguered economy, Milei has slashed public sector wages, eliminated thousands of state jobs, frozen public works projects and cut subsidies. He has also devalued the nosediving peso currency by over 50%, helping it stabilize but causing the prices of basic goods to skyrocket."
You know what happened because of this? He didn't finish a $45m project to get gas for the country so he ended up spending hundreds of millions to import liquid gas, while the country suffered cuts all around, and with no solution for this winter which hasn't even started.

2) "Although brutal for Argentina’s poor and middle classes, the market-friendly overhaul has “resulted in faster-than-anticipated progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and bringing the program firmly back on track,” the IMF said, thanking Argentine authorities for “the decisive implementation of their stabilization plan.”"
So, again, they're thanking him because they'll get their money back at the expense of the poor and middle classes, how great!

3) "However, it warned that the quality of the adjustment and Argentina's monetary framework must be improved.
Addressing challenges, the IMF said that “social assistance” should be “strengthened as needed” and warned that blocks on productivity, private investment and formal employment must be tackled."
None of this is happening: social assistance is barely covering inflation, private investment is not only $0 so far but also thousands of companies are firing people, the private sector has fired more people than Milei in the public sector. Literally nothing is being done to help formal employment, on the contrary: they want to pass legislation that legalizes and facilitates informality.

4) "Earlier this week the IMF slashed its forecast for Argentina's 2024 GDP to a 2.8% contraction from a previous view of a 2.8% expansion, mostly due to the expected effects of the new government's proposed reforms."
So the IMF is praising someone who changed their forecast 5.6% points on the negative? Hm, interesting.

Tell me, Foxi dear, how will the wages recover now? How will consumer spending do it? Industrial activity is at an all time low, losing 15% interanual only in April. But that can't be possible! The government said the 8,4% from March was the lowest point!
Fuck right off mate, it's easy to support these shitty experiments when you're not the one living through them.

Also, fun fact: Milei won thanks to his alliance with the PRO party (Macri), party that took the +$50 billion loan that we're now struggling to pay. Good thing he was a new voice against the politician breed! The IMF also said they should've never given that loan. But good thing they're praising Milei now!

 

[Foxi4]

No debt is really being paid if there is a surplus innit. Anyway, you trust the plan and we will see how it pans out. There is an insiders view of argentina which, frankly, seems more accurate than yours.

You can just say that you don’t care what the objective reality of the matter is and you’re more interested in a partisan hot take - that’s totally fine. It has no impact on the relevant metrics, you’re just more interested in other ones. Unfortunately, while the ones you care about may temporarily improve general welfare, Argentina is not in a position to afford much in that respect at present.

So the IMF that fucked our country in the first place "praise" the dude who is gonna make everything in his power to pay them back (no matter the cost), shocking. Let's see what else did the IMF say:
1) "To overhaul the beleaguered economy, Milei has slashed public sector wages, eliminated thousands of state jobs, frozen public works projects and cut subsidies. He has also devalued the nosediving peso currency by over 50%, helping it stabilize but causing the prices of basic goods to skyrocket."
You know what happened because of this? He didn't finish a $45m project to get gas for the country so he ended up spending hundreds of millions to import liquid gas, while the country suffered cuts all around, and with no solution for this winter which hasn't even started.

2) "Although brutal for Argentina’s poor and middle classes, the market-friendly overhaul has “resulted in faster-than-anticipated progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and bringing the program firmly back on track,” the IMF said, thanking Argentine authorities for “the decisive implementation of their stabilization plan.”"
So, again, they're thanking him because they'll get their money back at the expense of the poor and middle classes, how great!

3) "However, it warned that the quality of the adjustment and Argentina's monetary framework must be improved.
Addressing challenges, the IMF said that “social assistance” should be “strengthened as needed” and warned that blocks on productivity, private investment and formal employment must be tackled."
None of this is happening: social assistance is barely covering inflation, private investment is not only $0 so far but also thousands of companies are firing people, the private sector has fired more people than Milei in the public sector. Literally nothing is being done to help formal employment, on the contrary: they want to pass legislation that legalizes and facilitates informality.

4) "Earlier this week the IMF slashed its forecast for Argentina's 2024 GDP to a 2.8% contraction from a previous view of a 2.8% expansion, mostly due to the expected effects of the new government's proposed reforms."
So the IMF is praising someone who changed their forecast 5.6% points on the negative? Hm, interesting.

Tell me, Foxi dear, how will the wages recover now? How will consumer spending do it? Industrial activity is at an all time low, losing 15% interanual only in April. But that can't be possible! The government said the 8,4% from March was the lowest point!
Fuck right off mate, it's easy to support these shitty experiments when you're not the one living through them.

Also, fun fact: Milei won thanks to his alliance with the PRO party (Macri), party that took the +$50 billion loan that we're now struggling to pay. Good thing he was a new voice against the politician breed! The IMF also said they should've never given that loan. But good thing they're praising Milei now!

I like how we went from “it’s not true” through “show me the evidence” until we arrived at “well, I don’t like those bankers so it doesn’t matter”. Thank you for quoting my own article back to me though as if I haven’t read it - I have, and yes, the IMF absolutely praised Milei. The idea that Argentina went into debt five minutes ago is pure fantasy, you guys have been overspending hand over fist for decades. I’m sorry that collapsed your currency and depressed your wages. Here’s for hoping that some temporary hurt can lead to recovery from the worst depression your country has ever suffered - you have the previous administrations to thank for that. Milei had nothing to do with it, but he’s certainly helping you climb out, whether you like the measures or not. Thankfully nobody expects Argentina to pay off the entirety of its debt, much like nobody expects the U.S. to pay theirs - that’s simply not realistic. Relative economic stability will suffice, but it’ll be a while before you get to that point.

 

[jomaper]

You can just say that you don’t care what the objective reality of the matter is and you’re more interested in a partisan hot take - that’s totally fine. It has no impact on the relevant metrics, you’re just more interested in other ones. Unfortunately, while the ones you care about may temporarily improve general welfare, Argentina is not in a position to afford much in that respect at present.
I like how we went from “it’s not true” through “show me the evidence” until we arrived at “well, I don’t like those bankers so it doesn’t matter”. Thank you for quoting my own article back to me though as if I haven’t read it - I have, and yes, the IMF absolutely praised Milei. The idea that Argentina went into debt five minutes ago is pure fantasy, you guys have been overspending hand over fist for decades. I’m sorry that collapsed your currency and depressed your wages. Here’s for hoping that some temporary hurt can lead to recovery from the worst depression your country has ever suffered - you have the previous administrations to thank for that. Milei had nothing to do with it, but he’s certainly helping you climb out, whether you like the measures or not. Thankfully nobody expects Argentina to pay off the entirety of its debt, much like nobody expects the U.S. to pay theirs - that’s simply not realistic. Relative economic stability will suffice, but it’ll be a while before you get to that point.

The IMF had been praising the previous government too, in fact they expected a 2.8% growth based on Massa winning, that now went to a 2.8% negative because of Milei. Taking their word for anything is being ignorant at best, or malicious at worst. You can say whatever you want but most of our debt came after the +$50b the IMF gave to Macri (again, debt that they accepted shouldn't have gone through, much like what happened in 2001), so yeah I don't think your "five minutes ago" BS applies, for I didn't claim all of Argentina's issues stem from there, but certainly the biggest ones and most urgent right now: specially the ones that made Milei think this much of a recession was necessary.
I'll fuck off this thread until things go to shit, because we're just going in circles and you're not gonna change my view, you have fun masturbating to your theory not applied anywhere else in the world that will totally work, until it doesn't and then you'll put some excuses.

 

[Foxi4]

The IMF had been praising the previous government too, in fact they expected a 2.8% growth based on Massa winning, that now went to a 2.8% negative because of Milei. Taking their word for anything is being ignorant at best, or malicious at worst. You can say whatever you want but most of our debt came after the +$50b the IMF gave to Macri (again, debt that they accepted shouldn't have gone through, much like what happened in 2001), so yeah I don't think your "five minutes ago" BS applies, for I didn't claim all of Argentina's issues stem from there, but certainly the biggest ones and most urgent right now: specially the ones that made Milei think this much of a recession was necessary.
I'll fuck off this thread until things go to shit, because we're just going in circles and you're not gonna change my view, you have fun masturbating to your theory not applied anywhere else in the world that will totally work, until it doesn't and then you'll put some excuses.

”Argentina got into debt when they borrowed money” - uhh, yeah. Well done. Damn those people with money, damn them all! If only they haven’t given the Argentinian government money to spend frivolously Argentina wouldn’t be in debt now! Is this a serious argument?

You have no idea how national debt works. It’s not about a specific number, it’s about the relation between debt and gross domestic product. Countries borrow money so that, ideally, they can make *more money*. You don’t just borrow 400 billion dollars to piss it away, that’s how you create a debt catastrophe and dig yourself into a hole you can’t possibly climb out of. Argentina was in a *way* worse spot in the early 2000’s, and has been climbing out of *that* hole ever since. If you’re borrowing heaps of money, you’re *supposed* to reinvest it because, surprise, creditors expect repayments.

Kitrchneristas left Macri an impossible task of saving a country in economic freefall. I’m sorry that the fraudster-in-chief screwed you guys over and his successors couldn’t patch the sinking boat, God only knows which of Kirchner‘s figures were even real and which were falsified, but the issues you attribute to Macri go *way back*. You know that, you even mentioned Argentina’s earlier financial troubles, but for some reason Milei’s supposed to be the scapegoat. Okay.

The problem with damage is that it’s cumulative - once you screw something up, it gets progressively more screwed up until you decide to finally go ahead and fix it. In the case of Argentina the fix may require complete disassembly - that introduces chaos temporarily, but is the only path towards recovery.

https://hir.harvard.edu/peronism-and-the-kirchners-the-addiction-argentina-cant-quit/

That, or the country can just do what it always does - completely collapse, default on its debts and pretend nothing ever happened, learning nothing in the process. Wouldn’t be the first time. In fact, it’d be the tenth time.